No growth in sales until 2005

[elektro80]

Email: simon.dyson@informa.com
Url: http://www.informamedia.com

The value of global music sales will continue to fall in the years to 2005, according to a new report by Informa Media Group. The report, THE GLOBAL MUSIC INDUSTRY (3RD EDITION), estimates that the global value will drop below $28 billion in 2004 before returning to growth in 2005, driven primarily by the restriction of online file exchange coupled with greater control of CD copying. By the end of 2008 the value of global sales is estimated to have risen to $32 billion.

For 2003 the value of the world's music sales is forecast to fall for the fourth year in succession. Informa Media estimates the decrease in the retail value will be 8.9%, reducing the overall value of sales to $28.2 billion. CD sales, which fell for the first time in 2001, are forecast to decrease for a third year - by 8% to 2.1 billion units.

Author of the report Simon Dyson said: "The music industry is in a bad way at the moment but the continued fall in the value of music sales is certainly not irreversible. The success of the new download services proves there is a viable market for legitimate digital sales, but the music companies must act decisively to stop the growth of the illegal services and the widespread copying of CDs."

Although Informa has forecast a return to growth in 2005, this is not based on an assumption of inevitable growth after lengthy decline but on the music industry finally scoring some success in the battle against file sharing and CD copying.

While the sale of music via the internet is to prove itself as a growth sector, Informa believes its significance has been exaggerated and will not prove to be the industry's saviour in the short- to medium-term. For the years up to and including 2008 the level of online music sales in all formats is forecast to rise but will only account for an estimated 12.1% share of the global total. Digital music sales will increase in the years to 2008 but will remain a niche sector. By 2008, digital sales will account for an estimated 5.7% of the global total.

THE GLOBAL MUSIC INDUSTRY (3RD EDITION), is published by Informa Media Group, which also publishes the influential MUSIC & COPYRIGHT newsletter. The report contains forecasts for music sales up to and including 2008 and also includes regional and country profiles of the top 20 music markets with sales and market share details in addition to forecasts for music sales via traditional retailers and the internet. Published: November 2003. Price: £650/US$975/(975. Pages: 194 Contact details: Simon Dyson (simon.dyson@informa.com Tel: 020 70174249)

About Informa Media Group
Informa Media Group is the world's largest media information provider. Our publications provide insight and expert analysis on all topics, trends and key issues affecting the media industry today. Media professionals throughout the world depend on our publications to keep them updated with the increasingly complex ecology of international media markets, whether they work within broadcasting, programming and production, network development, or new media. Informa Media Group is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Informa Group Plc.